--FIRST -PREV NEXT-
By early October of 1860, the four-way race for the Presidency was nearing its close. Several of the Southern states had made it plain that they would secede from the Union if a Republican were elected. Two questions were at the forefront: would they, and could they? For the first, many in the North thought that the pronouncements coming from the cotton states were just election-year bluster. For the other... The Constitution has this to say, explicitly, about the legality of secession:
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the nub of the problem.
The Founders honestly never imagined the question coming up. It was only by union and concerted action that they had wrested their freedom from Britain at all. As small, independent entities they were sure they'd be gobbled up, piecemeal. So, while they were very careful to detail the procedures for new territories joining up, they neglected to consider the possibility that any would bolt the fold, once inside. And for fifty years, near enough, they were right.
The question weighed heavily on peoples' minds that autumn. Is it legal, or not? There are two broad approaches to the question, one Constitutional and one based on contracts, and each one can be argued pro or con.
First, there's the fact that the Constitution has nothing explicit to say on the matter. Most American jurisdictions draw their legal traditions from English Common Law, and as such, unless something is expressly prohibited, it's permissible by default. By this line of reasoning, the fact that it's not specifically prohibited meant that secession was perfectly legal.
But there's another Constitutional argument in play. If you interpret the Preamble as having the force of law, the phrase "to form a more perfect Union" implies an indivisible Union, since an indivisible Union is clearly more perfect than a divisible one. Further, one of the Anti-Federalist arguments against adoption of the Constitution was that such a strong Federal goverment implied a perpetual Union, posing a threat to State sovereignty.
Another argument flows from the nature of contracts. Some contracts can be terminated at will by either party. Some hold that the accession of a State to the Union follows this model, and any State is free to exercise it's sovereign prerogative at any time. But there's a counter-argument here, too; some contracts require both parties' agreement to end, like marriage. Under this interpretation, the accession of a State is an agreement between the State and Congress. Both would have to agree in order to sever their connection.
But an even larger point loomed, that even the most ardent Fire-Eater would be compelled to take notice of. What about the property to which the Federal government held clear title? Customs houses, armories, forts and the like?
No one was thinking about those yet. They should have. They would come to regret this oversight, in months and years to come.
Friday, October 01, 2010
Friday, September 24, 2010
Video Del Fuego, Part XXXV
The world's smallest stop-motion video (hat tip: Andrew Sullivan):
It's from Aardman, naturally enough, the same fine studio that brought us Wallace and Gromit. And it's pretty awesome.
It's from Aardman, naturally enough, the same fine studio that brought us Wallace and Gromit. And it's pretty awesome.
Friday, September 17, 2010
Election 2010: T-46 Days
In forty-six days, we'll go to the polls to elect the next Congress -- the entire House of Representatives, and one-third of the Senate. It's liable to be a bad year to be a Democrat. But first, we'll look at the numbers:
Intrade:
Democrats retain control of the Senate: 64.6%
Democrats retain control of the House: 29.0%
Republicans get control of the Senate: 25.4%
Republicans get control of the House: 68.7%
(Interestingly enough, Intrade quotes 15% chance that neither party will control the Senate. I'm fairly sure that outcome isn't even possible.)
FiveThirtyEight:
House Seats Solidly D: 168
House Seats Leaning D: 46
House Seats Tossup: 34
House Seats Leaning R: 19
House Seats Solidly R: 168
Senate Seats Solidly D: 46
Senate Seats Leaning D: 5
Senate Seats Tossup: 9
Senate Seats Leaning R: 5
Senate Seats Solidly R: 36
(Continuing seats are included in the "Solidly" count.)
As it stands today, the Republicans have to run the table in the "toss-up" districts to recapture the House. Which is possible, and I'd say even likely, given the current state of the country.
The main story of this election cycle isn't really the Tea Party, although they've made the most noise. The reason that this year is poison for the Democrats is all about the economy, and that's about the size of it. Just like last time, except that the party in power has changed. The recovery is underway, but has not gathered enough steam yet to make a big difference on Main Street. Therefore, too many people are still out of work or underemployed, and there's a vast reservoir of discontent amongst the electorate. This, more than anything else, is why we're liable to have a new Speaker of the House come January.
What it's not is an indictment of Democrats' support for the health care bill, except tangentially. Obama spent a large amount of time, effort, and political capital to get that bill passed. There is a perception that this took time and effort away from economic matters. Whether the charge is true or not is almost irrelevant, the perception is still there, and it's going to hurt.
What it's also not, is a broader acceptance of the Tea Party and its principles. This is the point that is liable to be very interesting indeed going forward from 2010 into 2012. The Republicans are probably going to recapture the House ... and may well learn the wrong lesson from their victory.
The right lesson to learn would be that the American public wants the economy moving again. What they're not especially interested in is a Congress that's locked in an ideological war with the White House, getting nothing of interest done. That's an outcome that doesn't really do them any good two years down the road. If they take a hard line, they give Obama a free ride to tack towards the center, and a run at re-election as a centrist moderate.
I think it's entirely probable that they will take a hard line. In its current, Tea Party driven form, the GOP has doubled down on the crazy. They'll interpret their win in November as a mandate, and the blow-back will be a harsh surprise to them.
This, of course, assumes that a reasonably strong recovery is underway in two years' time. I think that's the way to bet. If it's not, all bets are off. But if it shakes out the way I expect, the Republicans will pay a stiff price in 2012 for ideological recalcitrance today.
Intrade:
Democrats retain control of the Senate: 64.6%
Democrats retain control of the House: 29.0%
Republicans get control of the Senate: 25.4%
Republicans get control of the House: 68.7%
(Interestingly enough, Intrade quotes 15% chance that neither party will control the Senate. I'm fairly sure that outcome isn't even possible.)
FiveThirtyEight:
House Seats Solidly D: 168
House Seats Leaning D: 46
House Seats Tossup: 34
House Seats Leaning R: 19
House Seats Solidly R: 168
Senate Seats Solidly D: 46
Senate Seats Leaning D: 5
Senate Seats Tossup: 9
Senate Seats Leaning R: 5
Senate Seats Solidly R: 36
(Continuing seats are included in the "Solidly" count.)
As it stands today, the Republicans have to run the table in the "toss-up" districts to recapture the House. Which is possible, and I'd say even likely, given the current state of the country.
The main story of this election cycle isn't really the Tea Party, although they've made the most noise. The reason that this year is poison for the Democrats is all about the economy, and that's about the size of it. Just like last time, except that the party in power has changed. The recovery is underway, but has not gathered enough steam yet to make a big difference on Main Street. Therefore, too many people are still out of work or underemployed, and there's a vast reservoir of discontent amongst the electorate. This, more than anything else, is why we're liable to have a new Speaker of the House come January.
What it's not is an indictment of Democrats' support for the health care bill, except tangentially. Obama spent a large amount of time, effort, and political capital to get that bill passed. There is a perception that this took time and effort away from economic matters. Whether the charge is true or not is almost irrelevant, the perception is still there, and it's going to hurt.
What it's also not, is a broader acceptance of the Tea Party and its principles. This is the point that is liable to be very interesting indeed going forward from 2010 into 2012. The Republicans are probably going to recapture the House ... and may well learn the wrong lesson from their victory.
The right lesson to learn would be that the American public wants the economy moving again. What they're not especially interested in is a Congress that's locked in an ideological war with the White House, getting nothing of interest done. That's an outcome that doesn't really do them any good two years down the road. If they take a hard line, they give Obama a free ride to tack towards the center, and a run at re-election as a centrist moderate.
I think it's entirely probable that they will take a hard line. In its current, Tea Party driven form, the GOP has doubled down on the crazy. They'll interpret their win in November as a mandate, and the blow-back will be a harsh surprise to them.
This, of course, assumes that a reasonably strong recovery is underway in two years' time. I think that's the way to bet. If it's not, all bets are off. But if it shakes out the way I expect, the Republicans will pay a stiff price in 2012 for ideological recalcitrance today.
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Friday, September 10, 2010
Who's On First?
There's an old saying that no plan ever survives contact with reality intact. The crew rotation plan used in Project Apollo is a good object lesson.
The crew rotation was something that had been used throughout the American space program, at least up to the Shuttle. If there was ever a crew rotation for the Shuttle, I've never been able to figure out how it worked. The basic idea is, the backup crew for Mission 1 would be the prime crew three missions later. It gave the pilots a better idea of where they stood, and cut a lot of the drama out of what was already a fairly tense environment. More specifically, for Apollo, the Command Module Pilot would be the Commander of the backup crew three missions later, which means that he would be Commander himself, six missions later.
And it worked. More or less. But, it was a very bumpy road.
By way of illustration, we're going to look at the original prime and backup crews for the first three Apollo missions. We'll skip ahead to mid-1968, since it's pretty obvious how Apollo 1 altered the rotation.
This is how it looked in mid-1968. (Note: the real crew assignments don't completely line up.)
Apollo 7 Prime Crew: Wally Schirra (CDR), Donn Eisele (CMP), Walter Cunningham (LMP)
Apollo 7 Backup Crew: Tom Stafford (CDR), John Young (CMP), Eugene Cernan (LMP)
Apollo 8 Prime Crew: Frank Borman (CDR), Michael Collins (CMP), William Anders (LMP)
Apollo 8 Backup Crew: Neil Armstrong (CDR), Jim Lovell (CMP), Buzz Aldrin (LMP)
Apollo 9 Prime Crew: James McDivitt (CDR), David Scott (CMP), Russell Schweickart (LMP)
Apollo 9 Backup Crew: Charles Conrad (CDR), Richard Gordon (CMP), Alan Bean (LMP)
Now, from the rotation, we can guess the crew assignments for Apollo 10:
Apollo 10 Prime Crew: Tom Stafford (CDR), John Young (CMP), Eugene Cernan (LMP)
Apollo 10 Backup Crew: Donn Eisele (CDR), Walter Cunningham (LMP), Edgar Mitchell (LMP)
It's a nice theory ... except that this is what really happened:
Apollo 10 Prime Crew: Tom Stafford (CDR), John Young (CMP), Eugene Cernan (LMP)
Apollo 10 Backup Crew: Gordon Cooper (CDR), Donn Eisele (CMP), Edgar Mitchell (LMP)
Well, that's nice... What in the world happened here? Apollo 7 happened, that's what. Wally Schirra had a nasty cold for pretty much the entire flight, and was in a foul mood. This carried over into his relationship with Mission Control, and since the Commander sets the tone for his crew, it spilled over into their ability to work with Mission Control as well. It's not well-publicized, but Mission Control does exercise a kind of veto over crew assignments. If Mission Control decides that this is a man they can't work with ... well, that man never flies again. Eisele was being given a rotation as Command Module Pilot, to see if he'd be able to cut it. This was also the case with Cooper. Ordinarily, you'd expect Cooper to draw an early Commander's slot, being the only other Mercury veteran still on flight status. But, Cooper had developed a rather lax attitude towards training during Gemini, and was being given a backup slot to prove himself.
Now, let's look at what we expect Apollo 11 to look like:
Apollo 11 Prime Crew: Neil Armstrong (CDR), Jim Lovell (CMP), Buzz Aldrin (LMP)
Apollo 11 Backup Crew: Michael Collins (CDR), William Anders (CMP), Fred Haise (LMP)
You may be thinking that doesn't look quite right. Here is what really happened:
Apollo 11 Prime Crew: Neil Armstrong (CDR), Michael Collins (CMP), Buzz Aldrin (LMP)
Apollo 11 Backup Crew: Jim Lovell (CDR), William Anders (CMP), Fred Haise (LMP)
Here, it wasn't a performance issue with Collins, it was a medical problem. After the original assignments had been made in 1968, Collins needed shoulder surgery, and had to swap seats with Lovell. Which meant that Collins ended up on the backup crew for all intents and purposes, and thus the prime crew on Apollo 11.
Nothing especially interesting happened to Apollo 12 as far as crew rotations went. But for Apollo 13 and Apollo 14, things got ... interesting.
Apollo 13 was originally going to be Cooper/Eisele/Mitchell, and Apollo 14 was going to be Lovell/Anders/Haise. First off, Bill Anders took a job with the National Space Council, and had to be replaced on the crew of Apollo 14. He was replaced by Ken Mattingly. The crew for Apollo 13 went through an almost complete re-shuffle. Cooper didn't do well enough to impress Deke Slayton, and neither did Eisele, so they both had to be replaced. Eisele was replaced by Stu Roosa. It was more or less at this point that Alan Shepard, another Mercury veteran, returned to flight status after a lengthy medical problem. This was a Godsend for Slayton, who was otherwise going to have a hard time filling that seat ... but Shepard would need extra time to train. So, he swapped the crews for Apollo 13 and Apollo 14. Apollo 13 would be Lovell/Mattingly/Haise, and Apollo 14 would be Shepard/Roosa/Mitchell.
Except, of course, that Mattingly was exposed to German measles a week before flight, and had to be replaced with his backup, Jack Swigert. Although it didn't feel like it on the day, it ended up being a good deal for Mattingly. Apollo 13, as you might remember, wasn't exactly a fun ride.
Now, one last example: let's see if we can figure out the backup crew for Apollo 14:
Apollo 14 Backup Crew: Michael Collins (CDR), Buzz Aldrin (CMP), Joe Engle (LMP)
This would have been the prime crew for Apollo 17. Which, of course, had a completely different crew:
Apollo 17 Prime Crew: Eugene Cernan (CDR), Ron Evans (CMP), Jack Schmitt (LMP)
As it turns out, the post-mission publicity pegged the fun-meters for Collins and Aldrin, and they lit out for greener pastures. Slayton would ordinarily have picked a veteran CMP to promote to Commander ... but there weren't any to be had. The Apollo 9 CMP was already training for Apollo 15, and the Apollo 12 crew was also deep into their new assignments. Conrad and Bean would command the first two Skylab missions. Slayton's crew rotation was now officially in an inverted spin with all engines on fire. So, it developed that Cernan was promoted directly from LMP to CDR, without having had a turn at CMP first. Ron Evans was assigned as the CMP. Engle ... well, he drew short straw after Apollo 18 was cancelled. The LMP for Apollo 18 was to have been Jack Schmitt, a trained geologist. It was considered intolerable that the Apollo program should end without a scientist ever touching the lunar surface. So, Engle got bumped. At the time, he said that the hardest thing about that was having to tell his young son that his Dad wouldn't be going to the Moon.
But he ended up all right. Joe Engle went on to command the second flight of the Space Shuttle, in 1981.
[Personal Note: I actually met Joe Engle in 1986, and got his autograph. It's the only one I own.]
At the end of the day, this points up the fact that history isn't a study of things or even events, but of people. And people ... well, they can be pretty weird. Weird, but always interesting.
The crew rotation was something that had been used throughout the American space program, at least up to the Shuttle. If there was ever a crew rotation for the Shuttle, I've never been able to figure out how it worked. The basic idea is, the backup crew for Mission 1 would be the prime crew three missions later. It gave the pilots a better idea of where they stood, and cut a lot of the drama out of what was already a fairly tense environment. More specifically, for Apollo, the Command Module Pilot would be the Commander of the backup crew three missions later, which means that he would be Commander himself, six missions later.
And it worked. More or less. But, it was a very bumpy road.
By way of illustration, we're going to look at the original prime and backup crews for the first three Apollo missions. We'll skip ahead to mid-1968, since it's pretty obvious how Apollo 1 altered the rotation.
This is how it looked in mid-1968. (Note: the real crew assignments don't completely line up.)
Apollo 7 Prime Crew: Wally Schirra (CDR), Donn Eisele (CMP), Walter Cunningham (LMP)
Apollo 7 Backup Crew: Tom Stafford (CDR), John Young (CMP), Eugene Cernan (LMP)
Apollo 8 Prime Crew: Frank Borman (CDR), Michael Collins (CMP), William Anders (LMP)
Apollo 8 Backup Crew: Neil Armstrong (CDR), Jim Lovell (CMP), Buzz Aldrin (LMP)
Apollo 9 Prime Crew: James McDivitt (CDR), David Scott (CMP), Russell Schweickart (LMP)
Apollo 9 Backup Crew: Charles Conrad (CDR), Richard Gordon (CMP), Alan Bean (LMP)
Now, from the rotation, we can guess the crew assignments for Apollo 10:
Apollo 10 Prime Crew: Tom Stafford (CDR), John Young (CMP), Eugene Cernan (LMP)
Apollo 10 Backup Crew: Donn Eisele (CDR), Walter Cunningham (LMP), Edgar Mitchell (LMP)
It's a nice theory ... except that this is what really happened:
Apollo 10 Prime Crew: Tom Stafford (CDR), John Young (CMP), Eugene Cernan (LMP)
Apollo 10 Backup Crew: Gordon Cooper (CDR), Donn Eisele (CMP), Edgar Mitchell (LMP)
Well, that's nice... What in the world happened here? Apollo 7 happened, that's what. Wally Schirra had a nasty cold for pretty much the entire flight, and was in a foul mood. This carried over into his relationship with Mission Control, and since the Commander sets the tone for his crew, it spilled over into their ability to work with Mission Control as well. It's not well-publicized, but Mission Control does exercise a kind of veto over crew assignments. If Mission Control decides that this is a man they can't work with ... well, that man never flies again. Eisele was being given a rotation as Command Module Pilot, to see if he'd be able to cut it. This was also the case with Cooper. Ordinarily, you'd expect Cooper to draw an early Commander's slot, being the only other Mercury veteran still on flight status. But, Cooper had developed a rather lax attitude towards training during Gemini, and was being given a backup slot to prove himself.
Now, let's look at what we expect Apollo 11 to look like:
Apollo 11 Prime Crew: Neil Armstrong (CDR), Jim Lovell (CMP), Buzz Aldrin (LMP)
Apollo 11 Backup Crew: Michael Collins (CDR), William Anders (CMP), Fred Haise (LMP)
You may be thinking that doesn't look quite right. Here is what really happened:
Apollo 11 Prime Crew: Neil Armstrong (CDR), Michael Collins (CMP), Buzz Aldrin (LMP)
Apollo 11 Backup Crew: Jim Lovell (CDR), William Anders (CMP), Fred Haise (LMP)
Here, it wasn't a performance issue with Collins, it was a medical problem. After the original assignments had been made in 1968, Collins needed shoulder surgery, and had to swap seats with Lovell. Which meant that Collins ended up on the backup crew for all intents and purposes, and thus the prime crew on Apollo 11.
Nothing especially interesting happened to Apollo 12 as far as crew rotations went. But for Apollo 13 and Apollo 14, things got ... interesting.
Apollo 13 was originally going to be Cooper/Eisele/Mitchell, and Apollo 14 was going to be Lovell/Anders/Haise. First off, Bill Anders took a job with the National Space Council, and had to be replaced on the crew of Apollo 14. He was replaced by Ken Mattingly. The crew for Apollo 13 went through an almost complete re-shuffle. Cooper didn't do well enough to impress Deke Slayton, and neither did Eisele, so they both had to be replaced. Eisele was replaced by Stu Roosa. It was more or less at this point that Alan Shepard, another Mercury veteran, returned to flight status after a lengthy medical problem. This was a Godsend for Slayton, who was otherwise going to have a hard time filling that seat ... but Shepard would need extra time to train. So, he swapped the crews for Apollo 13 and Apollo 14. Apollo 13 would be Lovell/Mattingly/Haise, and Apollo 14 would be Shepard/Roosa/Mitchell.
Except, of course, that Mattingly was exposed to German measles a week before flight, and had to be replaced with his backup, Jack Swigert. Although it didn't feel like it on the day, it ended up being a good deal for Mattingly. Apollo 13, as you might remember, wasn't exactly a fun ride.
Now, one last example: let's see if we can figure out the backup crew for Apollo 14:
Apollo 14 Backup Crew: Michael Collins (CDR), Buzz Aldrin (CMP), Joe Engle (LMP)
This would have been the prime crew for Apollo 17. Which, of course, had a completely different crew:
Apollo 17 Prime Crew: Eugene Cernan (CDR), Ron Evans (CMP), Jack Schmitt (LMP)
As it turns out, the post-mission publicity pegged the fun-meters for Collins and Aldrin, and they lit out for greener pastures. Slayton would ordinarily have picked a veteran CMP to promote to Commander ... but there weren't any to be had. The Apollo 9 CMP was already training for Apollo 15, and the Apollo 12 crew was also deep into their new assignments. Conrad and Bean would command the first two Skylab missions. Slayton's crew rotation was now officially in an inverted spin with all engines on fire. So, it developed that Cernan was promoted directly from LMP to CDR, without having had a turn at CMP first. Ron Evans was assigned as the CMP. Engle ... well, he drew short straw after Apollo 18 was cancelled. The LMP for Apollo 18 was to have been Jack Schmitt, a trained geologist. It was considered intolerable that the Apollo program should end without a scientist ever touching the lunar surface. So, Engle got bumped. At the time, he said that the hardest thing about that was having to tell his young son that his Dad wouldn't be going to the Moon.
But he ended up all right. Joe Engle went on to command the second flight of the Space Shuttle, in 1981.
[Personal Note: I actually met Joe Engle in 1986, and got his autograph. It's the only one I own.]
At the end of the day, this points up the fact that history isn't a study of things or even events, but of people. And people ... well, they can be pretty weird. Weird, but always interesting.
Friday, August 27, 2010
Sesquicentennial, Part IV: The Tale of the Tape
--FIRST -PREV NEXT-
The main advantage to looking back on these events from a century and a half is that so much information is available and indexed. For example, the 1860 Census is available online. The linked report lists, in detail, the number of manufacturers in each State. (For what it's worth, it took the Department of the Interior five years to collate the returns and generate this report.)
And so: we're going to borrow a term from boxing, the Tale of the Tape. We'll stack the disputants up, side by side, by three different figures of merit: population, miles of railroad, and number of manufacturers.
Population by State
(All states and regions listed by {free population}/{slave population})
New England:
Connecticut ........ 460,147/0
Maine .............. 628,279/0
Massachusetts ...... 1,231,066/0
New Hampshire ...... 326,073/0
Rhode Island ....... 174,620/0
Vermont ............ 315,098/0
New England Total: 3,135,283/0
Middle States:
New Jersey ......... 672,017/0
New York ........... 3,880,735/0
Pennsylvania ....... 2,906,215/0
Middle States Total: 7,458,967/0
Middle West:
Illinois ........... 1,711,951/0
Indiana ............ 1,350,428/0
Iowa ............... 674,913/0
Michigan ........... 749,113/0
Minnesota .......... 172,023/0
Ohio ............... 2,339,511/0
Wisconsin .......... 775,881/0
Middle West Total: 7,773,820/0
Far West:
California ......... 379,994/0
Oregon ............. 52,465/0
Far West Total: 432,459/0
Border States:
Delaware ........... 110,418/ 1,798
Dist. of Columbia .. 71,895/ 3,185
Kentucky ........... 930,201/ 225,483
Maryland ........... 599,860/ 87,189
Missouri ........... 1,067,081/ 114,931
Border States Total: 2,779,455/ 432,586
Upper South:
Arkansas ........... 324,335/ 111,115
North Carolina ..... 661,563/ 331,099
Tennessee .......... 834,082/ 275,719
Virginia ........... 1,105,453/ 490,865
Upper South Total: 2,945,433/1,208,798
Lower South:
Alabama ............ 519,121/ 435,080
Florida ............ 78,679/ 61,745
Georgia ............ 505,088/ 462,198
Louisiana .......... 376,276/ 331,726
Mississippi ........ 354,674/ 436,631
South Carolina ..... 301,302/ 402,406
Lower South Total: 2,135,140/2,129,786
Miles of Railroad by State
New England:
Maine .............. 472
New Hampshire ...... 661
Vermont ............ 554
Massachusetts ...... 1,264
Rhode Island ....... 108
Connecticut ........ 601
New England Total: 3,660
Middle States: (note -- source missed NY and NJ)
Pennsylvania ....... 2,598
Delaware ........... 127
Maryland ........... 386
Middle States Total: 3,111
Western States: (note -- source missed MN)
Ohio ............... 2,946
Indiana ............ 2,163
Illinois ........... 2,790
Wisconsin .......... 905
Iowa ............... 655
Missouri ........... 817
Kentucky ........... 534
Western Total: 10,810
Southern States:
Virginia ........... 1,379
North Carolina ..... 937
South Carolina ..... 973
Georgia ............ 1,420
Florida ............ 402
Alabama ............ 743
Mississippi ........ 862
Louisiana .......... 335
Texas .............. 307
Arkansas ........... 38
Tennessee .......... 1,253
Southern Total: 8,649
Manufacturing by Region
New England ........ 20,671
Middle States ...... 53,287
Western States ..... 36,795
Southern States .... 20,631
The main advantage to looking back on these events from a century and a half is that so much information is available and indexed. For example, the 1860 Census is available online. The linked report lists, in detail, the number of manufacturers in each State. (For what it's worth, it took the Department of the Interior five years to collate the returns and generate this report.)
And so: we're going to borrow a term from boxing, the Tale of the Tape. We'll stack the disputants up, side by side, by three different figures of merit: population, miles of railroad, and number of manufacturers.
Population by State
(All states and regions listed by {free population}/{slave population})
New England:
Connecticut ........ 460,147/0
Maine .............. 628,279/0
Massachusetts ...... 1,231,066/0
New Hampshire ...... 326,073/0
Rhode Island ....... 174,620/0
Vermont ............ 315,098/0
New England Total: 3,135,283/0
Middle States:
New Jersey ......... 672,017/0
New York ........... 3,880,735/0
Pennsylvania ....... 2,906,215/0
Middle States Total: 7,458,967/0
Middle West:
Illinois ........... 1,711,951/0
Indiana ............ 1,350,428/0
Iowa ............... 674,913/0
Michigan ........... 749,113/0
Minnesota .......... 172,023/0
Ohio ............... 2,339,511/0
Wisconsin .......... 775,881/0
Middle West Total: 7,773,820/0
Far West:
California ......... 379,994/0
Oregon ............. 52,465/0
Far West Total: 432,459/0
Border States:
Delaware ........... 110,418/ 1,798
Dist. of Columbia .. 71,895/ 3,185
Kentucky ........... 930,201/ 225,483
Maryland ........... 599,860/ 87,189
Missouri ........... 1,067,081/ 114,931
Border States Total: 2,779,455/ 432,586
Upper South:
Arkansas ........... 324,335/ 111,115
North Carolina ..... 661,563/ 331,099
Tennessee .......... 834,082/ 275,719
Virginia ........... 1,105,453/ 490,865
Upper South Total: 2,945,433/1,208,798
Lower South:
Alabama ............ 519,121/ 435,080
Florida ............ 78,679/ 61,745
Georgia ............ 505,088/ 462,198
Louisiana .......... 376,276/ 331,726
Mississippi ........ 354,674/ 436,631
South Carolina ..... 301,302/ 402,406
Lower South Total: 2,135,140/2,129,786
Miles of Railroad by State
New England:
Maine .............. 472
New Hampshire ...... 661
Vermont ............ 554
Massachusetts ...... 1,264
Rhode Island ....... 108
Connecticut ........ 601
New England Total: 3,660
Middle States: (note -- source missed NY and NJ)
Pennsylvania ....... 2,598
Delaware ........... 127
Maryland ........... 386
Middle States Total: 3,111
Western States: (note -- source missed MN)
Ohio ............... 2,946
Indiana ............ 2,163
Illinois ........... 2,790
Wisconsin .......... 905
Iowa ............... 655
Missouri ........... 817
Kentucky ........... 534
Western Total: 10,810
Southern States:
Virginia ........... 1,379
North Carolina ..... 937
South Carolina ..... 973
Georgia ............ 1,420
Florida ............ 402
Alabama ............ 743
Mississippi ........ 862
Louisiana .......... 335
Texas .............. 307
Arkansas ........... 38
Tennessee .......... 1,253
Southern Total: 8,649
Manufacturing by Region
New England ........ 20,671
Middle States ...... 53,287
Western States ..... 36,795
Southern States .... 20,631
For the moment, I'll simply leave these numbers up without comment. This is simply a snapshot of the industrial status of the United States in the summer of 1860. This status will become of vital importance later on in the year. We will refer back to this table later on.
Friday, August 20, 2010
Video Del Fuego, Part XXXIII
It's hard to believe, really, that there are only two flights left for the Space Shuttle program. It's been a long, long road. The program was approved by President Nixon in 1972, and the final design was chosen in 1973. The first test vehicle, Enterprise, was rolled out on September 17, 1976. Its first glide test took place on August 12, 1977. Five Orbiters have flown in space: Columbia, Challenger, Discovery, Atlantis, and Endeavour. Only three are left. Challenger was lost on the way up, and Columbia on the way down.
Atlantis has already flown its last scheduled flight, it's standing ready as the rescue ship should anything go wrong with the last two flights. Discovery is scheduled to take its last flight on November 1st, with Endeavour closing out the program on February 26, 2011.
For all its problems, it's been a marvelous vehicle. More humans have ridden into space on Space Shuttles than any other vehicle in history. That's a record that won't stand forever. But it may well stand for a couple of decades.
Without further comment, here's Endeavour making a night re-entry and landing at KSC Runway 33.
Atlantis has already flown its last scheduled flight, it's standing ready as the rescue ship should anything go wrong with the last two flights. Discovery is scheduled to take its last flight on November 1st, with Endeavour closing out the program on February 26, 2011.
For all its problems, it's been a marvelous vehicle. More humans have ridden into space on Space Shuttles than any other vehicle in history. That's a record that won't stand forever. But it may well stand for a couple of decades.
Without further comment, here's Endeavour making a night re-entry and landing at KSC Runway 33.
Friday, August 13, 2010
Video Del Fuego, Part XXXII
In the beginning, there was Burt Rutan. Burt Rutan knows more about building airplanes than just about any other human alive today. One of his first designs was a kit-built airplane called the VariEze. It was so named because it was easy to build, and easy to fly. It was one of the first airplanes to make extensive use of then-new composite materials. Paradoxically, it really was far easier and cheaper for hobbyists to build airplanes out of styrofoam and fiberglass than out of aluminum. It takes years to learn to weld. You can learn how to lay up fiberglass in a long afternoon.
Time passed.
Then came a company called XCOR Aerospace. They build rocket engines. They looked at an old VariEze and thought, "We can make it better." And so, they did:
This, I think, is just about the smallest rocket-powered airplane you're ever going to see. But it's only the beginning. This was the first prototype for a racing airplane. They intend to build a series of similar craft for their proposed Rocket Racing League. Imagine the Indy 500, fifty yards right overhead.
Yes, there's a reason they do these things out in the Mojave Desert.
Time passed.
Then came a company called XCOR Aerospace. They build rocket engines. They looked at an old VariEze and thought, "We can make it better." And so, they did:
This, I think, is just about the smallest rocket-powered airplane you're ever going to see. But it's only the beginning. This was the first prototype for a racing airplane. They intend to build a series of similar craft for their proposed Rocket Racing League. Imagine the Indy 500, fifty yards right overhead.
Yes, there's a reason they do these things out in the Mojave Desert.
Friday, August 06, 2010
Video Del Fuego, Part XXXI
Some days, it just doesn't pay to get out of bed.
French missile technology is, on the whole, quite good. In fact, the survivors of the HMS Sheffield would say it's just a little bit too good. But the ERYX Anti-Tank Guided Missile is known to be something of a stinker.
I'm sure those guys all got out OK. ATGMs have to fly a certain distance downrange before the fuze will arm. The state of their laundry, on the other hand...
French missile technology is, on the whole, quite good. In fact, the survivors of the HMS Sheffield would say it's just a little bit too good. But the ERYX Anti-Tank Guided Missile is known to be something of a stinker.
I'm sure those guys all got out OK. ATGMs have to fly a certain distance downrange before the fuze will arm. The state of their laundry, on the other hand...
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