Election 2016: Compromised Immunity

Voting has begun in the 2016 election cycle at long last. And we see once again why I should stay out of the prediction business, because I was sure Trump's campaign would run aground once actual votes had to hit the bottom of a ballot box. Although to be sure, his electoral performance does slightly underperform his polling ... small comfort for the campaigns that have gone under to the Trump juggernaut. The GOP still has a chance to reclaim the candidacy from the insurgency, but they'll have to act quickly and decisively in order to do so.

It's kind of like the situation they had in 2008, when Huckabee surprised everyone with strong showings in early states. The antibodies in the Republican bloodstream came out in force, then. They found someone to rally around who had a somewhat troubled relationship with the Establishment, but could nonetheless manage to work with them most of the time.

But the antibodies are much, much weaker this year. The capital-E establishment candidate has already folded his tent. Rubio is probably their best bet at this point ... but Rubio may not be able to gather a first-ballot majority at the convention. No one may be able to.

I've said before that contested conventions are like bunch sprints in pro cycling. They're great fun to watch, but they generally happen because someone screwed up. In this case, the establishment has lost control of the nomination process, allowing a complete outsider to mount a so-far successful insurgency. Can they claw it back before there's an all-out floor brawl at  the convention?

Time will tell.

And now, the numbers. I draw my polling data from Pollster, and I've begun to use the prediction-market aggregator Predictwise to see how the betting markets are doing.

The Democrats

Clinton: 48.2% poll, 93% prediction
Sanders: 42.5% poll, 7% prediction

The polling indicates a tightening race, but the betting markets have Clinton as a heavy favorite. There's a definite undercurrent of discontent on both sides in this election cycle. Pollster has a "right track/wrong track" poll on its front page, and that poll has been underwater for quite some time now. "Wrong track" is down from its financial-crisis peak, but it's still running about three-to-two in favor of people not being happy about how things are going. This is why Sanders is giving Clinton a run for her money. I'd be frankly astonished if Clinton managed to lose the nomination, but there's a non-trivial possibility that could happen. But Clinton will have to juke left to out-Bernie Bernie, and then juke back to the center for the general election. Doable, but there's danger for her in that the Sanders camp will do the GOP's oppo research for them. But on the other hand, Clinton has been around long enough that there's really nothing new to turn up. Unless you've been living in an isolated cabin for the last twenty years, you know who Hillary Clinton is, and you probably have already formed an opinion about her. Opposition research will be of scant use to the GOP if she does win the candidacy.

The Republicans

Trump: 38.0% poll, 79% prediction
Cruz: 18.5% poll, 1% prediction
Rubio: 17.1% poll, 18% prediction
Carson: 8.5% poll, 0% prediction
Kaisch: 8.5% poll, 2% prediction

The clown car has winnowed down to a five-man race at this point, which is actually a two- or three-man race, depending on how you parse the numbers. I think Carson's basically out. And while Kaisch is the adult in the room at this point, he's also basically out. Come Tuesday, I think one or both of them might pull the striped handle and punch out. At that point, the GOP establishment has a choice to make, and it's not an especially palatable one. I think that to some extent they've made peace with a Trump candidacy. They think he's someone they can cut deals with. Which may well be true: cutting deals is just about the man's only skill of measurable worth. So in the sorting algorithm, they'd rather have Trump than Cruz. Of course, the establishment would rather have a case of genital warts than Cruz, but that's beside the point. They'd really rather have Kaisch, because he performs best against Clinton in the polls. He even wins most of them. Rubio would be their second choice. He still loses most of them, but he's not the down-ticket calamity that Cruz might well be. What the establishment needs if they're going to get someone who's not Trump is for the race to down-select, hard, as soon as possible. The not-Trump vote is spread too wide, and if it stays that way, Trump carries a fat slab of delegates to Cleveland. Maybe not enough to win outright, but enough to force a scrum on the convention floor ... and enough support to threaten a third-party candidacy which would well and truly screw the GOP. So, they're either going to have to throw their support behind a preferred non-Trump guy now, or decide they can live with Der Donald. But they have to pick soon. Time's not on their side.

The General Election

Generic Democrat: 61% prediction
Generic Republican: 39% prediction

Like I mentioned earlier, if you look at Pollster's head-to-head general election polls, the only Republican that has a clear chance is John Kaisch. But the GOP does not appear to be willing to nominate a candidate who can win. They'd rather bask in the purity of their righteousness than have an actual chance to effect policy. It's not the choice I'd make, but ...

The most interesting match-up from a statistical point of view would be Rubio vs. Clinton, since the error bars basically overlap. That looks like a true toss-up. The least interesting ... well, I really can't pick just one. Basically, any of the match-ups where the error bars don't touch. A clear decision is a clear decision.

Anyway, if you're looking to put money down, I'd take 3-2 odds on Clinton taking the oath of office next January. Not sure I'm especially happy about that -- but it's looking like that's the way it's liable to shake out.

Depending on where you live, it's too late to vote early, but it's never too late to vote often. Either way, get out and vote!

Election 2016: Peak Trump?

I like to look at two different kinds of data during election seasons. One of those will be the polls, obviously. This far out, the polls aren't always going to tell you anything tremendously useful, but they do get a sense of what the people who are paying attention are thinking. The other thing I like to look at are the prediction markets. These two sources tend to converge as the event draws closer. But this far out, it sometimes looks as if they were describing two entirely different contests.

Like now, for instance. Looking at the polls, it's all about Trump versus Carson. But Vegas loves them some Rubio. The intriguing question here is, why? (More on that later.)

The other question -- and I think this one has an important bearing on what kind of primary we're looking at -- is ... well, where is Rick Santorum?

Remember, the GOP's usual modus operandi amounts to "It's His Turn." A shocking number of Republican nominees were the runner-up the last time around. Let's look at all of the races in the last seventy years or so, and see what the trend tells us:

1952: Eisenhower (Taft)
1956: Eisenhower (inc.)
1960: Nixon (VP)
1964: Goldwater (Rockefeller)
1968: Nixon (Reagan)
1972: Nixon (inc.)
1976: Ford (inc.)
1980: Reagan (Bush the Elder)
1984: Reagan (inc.)
1988: Bush the Elder (Dole)
1992: Bush the Elder (inc.)
1996: Dole (Buchanan)
2000: Bush the Younger (McCain)
2004: Bush the Younger (inc.)
2008: McCain (Romney)
2012: Romney (Santorum)

Re-elections don't count, so we can discount 1956, 1972, 1976, 1984, 1992, and 2004. Nixon in 1968 is sort of unusual, but Nixon could claim a form of seniority in having been both a Republican VP and nominee. Excepting those, we have a fairly strong string of the prior runner-up taking the top spot in the next available election. Reagan in 1980 was the runner-up in both 1968 and 1976. Bush in 1988 was the runner-up in 1980, as well as the VP of a still-fairly-popular President. Dole was the runner-up in 1988, as was McCain in 2000 and Romney in 2008.

And Santorum? According to Pollster, he's sitting at 0.5%. Which means that the existence of Santorum supporters cannot be proven by any known statistical science.

This is going to be like 1964 or 2000: a year where they GOP throws "It's His Turn" onto the dust-heap, and does something else. What we don't know yet is whether 2016 will be more like 1964, or more like 2000. In 1964, there was an ideological struggle within the Republican party. in 2000, they'd been out of the White House long enough to want a winner, ideology be damned. Or, maybe, 2016 ends up being a little bit of both. The Goldwater-Reagan era of conservatism is over. This may be the year we find out what will take its place.

The Republicans

The interesting thing about this chart from Pollster is that it appears that Trump has hit at least a temporary ceiling. I'm actually surprised that he appears to be truly serious about seeking the nomination. I'd pegged this for a vanity project. It may still be a vanity project. And for a while, his poll numbers skyrocketed with no end in sight. For now, at least, it appears he's hit a hard ceiling of support. Time will tell if this is a fluke, or if it's for real. But when we turn to the betting markets, such as PredictIt, we see another story emerge:

Rubio: 0.49
Trump: 0.24
Cruz: 0.23
Bush: 0.17
Kaisch: 0.12
Carson: 0.11
Christie: 0.08
Fiorina: 0.07
Paul: 0.06

Yes, the Vegas bookies do love them some Rubio. And his polls don't totally stink -- he's in third behind Trump and Carson. He's well-positioned to heat up once the real voting starts in January. January is always when the vaporware candidates fold up like cheap suits. But Rubio strikes me as kind of an empty suit. I'm going to have to take a closer look at this in the coming weeks to months, because clearly they're seeing something in him that I don't.

The Democrats

Well, this isn't particularly interesting. You can look at the PredictIt numbers if you care to, but they're giving nearly four-to-one odds in Clinton's favor. Either the bosses have made the tactical decision to clear the decks for Secretary Clinton, or it's just that everyone is scared spitless of the Clinton machine. "It's Her Turn" seems to be in full effect, though; and it doesn't particularly matter why. If you're a Democrat, get used to the idea that Clinton will be your nominee. She's just about going to have to deliberately try to lose the nomination to fail to get it. Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is still achievable for her ... just not especially likely.

Voting begins in 87 days. Remember, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2016: Too Damn Early Edition

The clown car is now complete.

Of course, there's exactly zero chance that The Donald stays in the contest long enough to actually file disclosure papers with the FEC. He's got thirty days to do that, plus two more or less automatic 45-day extensions. With four months to play with, that takes us to October, by which time he'll have pulled the plug. In the meantime he gets exactly what he wants: the opportunity to strut and preen in the spotlight while people paid toadies pretend that he's meaningful and significant.

This does a disservice to the real candidates in the race. Candidates of substance, of experience, candidates who have real policy achievements they can point to. Whether or not those policy achievements were good things or not is open to debate. But people like Scott Walker, Rick Perry, and yes, even Mike Huckabee have earned a place at the table. Feckless nitwits like Trump haven't.

Be that as it may, though, it's that time again. Time for America's political parties, all across the spectrum, to club together and figure out who they're going to put forward for the office of President of the United States.

The stakes are high ... though not necessarily for the reasons you think. Yes, all the usual things are at stake: Supreme Court nominations, legislative action, the normal stuff. But there's also a historical dimension.

Whoever wins in November 2016 is going to get an absolute boatload of unearned credit.

Why, you ask?

Check out a time history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, plotted on a logarithmic scale:

I'd like to draw your attention to the behavior since 1940. From 1940 to about 1965, there was a period of fairly steady expansion. Then from 1965 to about 1985, a period of leveling-off. From 1985 to 2000, another expansion. Since 2000, another leveling-off.

There are policy explanations, of course, and proponents of the policies in effect during expansions will surely tout them. But there are also longer-term cycles at work, and developments that political policy has little to do with ... and we're primed for another expansion. It will probably get underway sometime between January 20, 2017 and January 20, 2021. The party of the occupant of the White House will try to claim the lion's share of the credit, earned or otherwise.

So the question remains ... who will that someone be?

For now, the Democratic Party's contest looks simpler, so that's where I'll start. (Numbers from Pollster. To keep the lists to a manageable size, I'll omit anyone under the 2% threshold.)

Hillary Clinton, 59.5%. While party unity can be a good thing, there's such a thing as too much unity. There needs to be at least some fractious debate during a primary, or the candidate is weakened. But that's beside point anyway. My issue with Clinton is the same as my issue with Jeb Bush -- there's been a Clinton or a Bush in the Presidential conversation since 1980. 1980! Two families have dominated Federal electoral politics for nearly forty years. This. Is. Not. GOOD. If you don't want an oligarchy, you kind of need to stop voting for oligarchs.

Bernie Sanders, 12.2%. Clinton's token opposition from the Left. I say "token", because I don't believe Sanders can pull enough support from the "center" part of the Democratic center-left coalition to win.

Joe Biden, 11.2%. Biden may make a race of it yet, but it's even odds that he decides to hang 'em up. The man is understandably heart-broken just right now, and may not have the fire and the thunder left for a hard campaign.

The Republican Party's list is considerably more active, and more interesting to talk about.

Marco Rubio, 11.7% No, pay attention. This isn't a continuation of the above list. It's just that there are a heck of a lot of Republicans going for the brass ring, and really, at this stage the polling really doesn't tell us much. The people at the top of the field probably have the "legs" to make a real challenge of it, but it's going to be a hard slog.

Jeb Bush, 10.9%. See? This is what I was going on about with Clinton above. We just can't seem to quit 'em. Although to be fair, as a former Governor, he's earned a right to be in the conversation. But I don't have to like it.

Scott Walker, 10.6%. And there's not a whole lot of daylight separating the top spots. Walker and Bush are duking it out for the "Seasoned Republican Governor" spot, while Carson and Rubio are still in the mix.

Ben Carson, 10.2%. And even amongst these four, their supporters only account for about 43% of the response field. It's going to be a wild ride, just like last time, with a succession of also-rans peaking and flaming out all through the Summer, Fall, and Winter.

Mike Huckabee, 8.8%. That said, while we're going to see some shake-outs from the Top Ten, I kind of suspect the Top Five will all be around for the Big Show in January. They've all rounded up enough financial support to make it through Super Tuesday, at a minimum.

Rand Paul, 8.4%. Sadly, I suspect Senator Paul will likely be one of the casualties. I say "sadly" because while I don't always (maybe even often) agree with him, I respect him. I respect a legislator who has the fortitude for an old-school, hold-the-floor filibuster. But since he doesn't have a "pocket billionaire" funding his campaign, he probably won't be able to go the distance.

Ted Cruz, 6.2%. So, we're all agreed now that "natural born" is perfectly well satisfied by jus sanguinis? By having an American parent? Sweet.

Chris Christie, 4.3%. He's not the lowest-ranked former governor in the race ... but he soon will be.

Carly Fiorina, 4.2%. I'll admit, I haven't paid much attention to Fiorina's policy views. I was too busy paying attention to her spectacular ineptitude at Hewlett-Packard. She took over an industry giant that made the finest hand-held computing devices known to Man, and left a smoldering pile of wreckage. Yeah, that's the kind of executive experience we really need in the Oval Office...

Rick Perry, 2.7%. Do not discount this man. His performance in the 2012 campaign debates was a bizarre anomaly. Expect him to bide his time, and quietly collect support from the flame-outs as they occur. He'll have swapped places with Christie on this list by the end of the summer.

Rick Santorum, 2.2%. In a normal GOP year, "It's His Turn" is powerful mojo. As the 2012 runner-up, you'd expect Santorum to be polling higher this time around ... except that this is no ordinary year. They've been out of office long enough for panic to begin brewing. The GOP is going to go one of two ways. They're either going to go for electability, or they're going to go for an ideological firebrand. I'm not sure Santorum fills either bill.

John Kaisch, 2.1%. OK, so Christie has room yet to fall to get to lowest-ranked Governor on this list.

The Donald, 1.9%. I include Captain Combover just to indicate that the bucket has clanged noisily off the bottom of the well. And there isn't any water down there. Well's dry, folks.

And that's where we are. The Democrats don't have enough candidates, and the Republicans have too many. It's liable to still be that way this Fall, when things begin to heat up in earnest.

And remember, as I always say: Vote early, and vote often!

Election 2014: Texas Goober Primaries

Yes, it's that time again, when Texans go to the polls to begin the process to elect another Governor, though no one's entirely sure why. I mean, the Texas Governor is extraordinarily weak to the point that your average night-shift convenience store manager has more actual authority within his sphere of competence. Still, this is something we've become accustomed to doing, so here we are.

Pity it's such a dull year.

A few years back, we had a grand old time, with Kinky Friedman on the ballot, and Carole Keeton Strayhorn running as an independent candidate, apparently for the sheer joy of poking a sharp stick in Rick Perry's eye. Now, that was fine sport.

The Democratic primary features Wendy Davis, and a bunch of people who aren't Wendy Davis. The Republican primary features Greg Abbott, and a bunch of people who aren't Greg Abbott.

Mainly, Davis seems to be running against Ray Madrigal, who has been running for the Democratic nomination so long that he's forgotten why. But since hardly anyone has ever heard of Mr. Madrigal, his chances of success are somewhere on the same order of magnitude as the number of R's in "Fat Chance". So, it's safe to say that Wendy Davis will end up the Democratic nominee for Governor after the March 4 primary.

Abbott is running against a veritable Cast of Thousands for the Republican nomination. Said cast includes a right-wing radio host, a secessionist, and a former Univision host who's evidently forgotten that in Texas "G.O.P." stands for "I Hate Mexicans." So, Greg Abbott will probably wind up as the Republican nominee after the March 4 primary, provided that the secessionist doesn't pull enough support to force a runoff. That's a distinctly non-zero probability, given the amount of free-roaming crazy loose in the Republican primary electorate these days.

As to who will win, it's anyone's guess. Pollster says that Greg Abbott sits at 40%, Wendy Davis at 34%, with "We're having an election?" bringing up the rear at 26%.

Early voting starts on February 18, and runs through the 28th. The Primary Election is on Tuesday, March 4th. Vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: Post-Mortem

I'm not entirely sure what to make of what happened yesterday and last night. I'm going to need a little help.



Dammit. I've already said that.

Anyway, now that it's too late to vote, early or often, let's see if we can't figure out what went down.

1) Intrade FTW! Once again, the betting market established the mark to beat, with one notable exception. Based on their guidance as of Friday, I predicted Virginia would go blue, but Florida would go red. That was a coin-flip, one that I just flat out called wrong. But with the exception of Florida, nothing happened last night that came as a surprise. At least, nothing voting-related.

2) Morning Crow: I'm not sure if he's said anything about it yet, but Nate Silver's site FiveThirtyEight also did pretty well last night. His final EV total came to 313, and I'm not entirely sure how he got that number ... but I'm guessing it was a weighted average of 303 and 332, the former being the total if Romney wins Florida, the latter if Obama wins that state. We just don't know which one it is yet, and may not for some time. But beyond Mr. Silver's acumen, polls in general have done really well this year. If you were going by FiveThirtyEight or Pollster last night, you wouldn't have seen many surprises either. The people who dissed the math nerds are eating a heaping helping of crow this day.

3) Not All Polls Are Created Equal: The guys who set up the Unskewed Polls website were convinced, utterly convinced, that the polling data was lying to them. So they fiddled with the data, using some weighted averaging of their own. Except ... the polls weren't lying. They were a very accurate picture of what was happening on the ground. Their final, definitive prediction ... well, it's just sad. Then, when you add pundits who take said prediction seriously...

4) The Epic Meltdown: Some things must be seen to be believed.



Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time on live television, paradigm shifting without a clutch! One can almost feel sorry for people like Karl Rove. They've bought in so thoroughly, so deeply, into the mental model they've created of the world around them that they've forgotten that the map is not the territory. Now, here's an interesting question, one that we can answer by stages in 2014 and 2016: will the smarter consumers of conservative media begin to ask the hard questions? Some will, because some already have: Andrew Sullivan being one, and David Frum being another. Some of the leaders will tire of losing. They'll stop paying attention to the outlets who merely tell the listeners and viewers what they think they want to hear.

5) The Twilight Of An Era: The Goldwater-Reagan era of modern conservatism is now well and truly over. It's too early to tell what will take its place, but the Reagan coalition has hit the reef, hard, and is taking on water. It won't last much longer.

6) Handicapping the 2016 Field: I've said before that "It's His Turn" is powerful mojo within the Republican party, which puts Rick Santorum in the pole position for 2016. Except that that's not always true. The exceptions are illustrative. Only three times in the last sixty years has "It's His Turn" failed. It failed in 1952, when Eisenhower won the nomination. It failed in 1964, when Goldwater won. And it failed in 2000, when George W. Bush won. The 1964 case is a bit of an outlier, since the GOP had a bit of a civil war that year between the hard-line conservatives and the moderates. That, in my view, was the beginning of the Goldwater-Reagan era. But let's look at 1952 and 2000: both occurred after multi-term Democratic administrations. In 1952, a 21-year-old casting his first ballot did not have a Republican President in his or her living memory. The Republicans were desperate for a win. Ordinarily they'd never give the nomination to a neophyte who'd never even voted before ... but this neophyte was the victorious savior of Europe. Not everyone liked Ike, but even most of those who didn't respected him. Then, in 2000, you had Clinton's two terms, and he was still fairly popular even at the end. The Republicans wanted a winner. I kind of expect this to repeat for 2016. Except, that I also kind of expect the kind of scrum that broke out in 1964.  We'll have to see how the 2014 mid-terms shake out. It'll be interesting, if nothing else.

7) And How'd Those SuperPACs Work Out For You? Six billion dollars were shoveled down the bottomless maw of the Media Beast, to no noticeable effect. The people who expected Mitt Romney to surf a tsunami of SuperPAC cash to the White House have been bitterly disappointed. The Air Game has squared off against the Ground Game, and lost decisively. Now, it may not always work that way, but at the end of the day it's the ballots at the polling place that count. Ads won't get those feet to the booth. The good word of someone you know and trust will. It'll be interesting to see how politicians react, once they digest how utterly useless SuperPACs seemed to be this time around.

8) The People Have Spoken! But what the roaring purple Hell have they said? They re-elected a Democrat to the White House. They also re-elected a Democratic majority to the Senate ... but returned a Republican majority to the House. I think John Boehner might have been right this afternoon, when he basically said that the American people expect them to hug it out and make this $&!@ work. If they wanted Obama to drive on with full force, they'd have given him a majority with which to do it, which they didn't. But, by returning him to the Presidency, they've basically said that they want to keep the Affordable Care Act in place. And they've said that they trust his vision better than Romney's, but they don't want him going crazy with it. Eh, it ain't the worst of results. And, they've also approved same-sex marriage in several states, and a major liberalization of drug laws in a few others. Like I said, I'm really not sure what to make of all this. TNC has a round-up, and I kind of agree with his assessment. The templates are shifting, and I don't entirely know what that means. It'll be interesting to find out.

9) Best Live-Blog Line Ever: Speaking of TNC, he had a beaut -- "9:55 To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their bloggers..."

10) Eight-Year Bloggiversary! Or near enough as makes no difference. I started this thing in the aftermath of the 2004 election, when I thought that someone ought to start talking the Democrats down off of the ledges. There were some pretty unhelpful things being said, back when. Things have gotten better.

And, that's a wrap. Election 2012 is now in the books. When historians write their thoughts of our times, I think one of the things they'll say of 2008 and 2012 is that while a majority of Americans were ready to elect an African-American President, a sizable minority were not yet ready to be governed by one. But they'll also write that we muddled through it, somehow. Because we're Americans, and that's just how we roll.

Election 2012: Joe Scarborough Fails Statistics Forever

On August 6th of this year, the Mars Science Laboratory touched down in Gale Crater. It was a feat of celestial navigation that's hardly had any equal. Not only because it was able to hit such a small target after flying three hundred fifty million miles, but because of this:

Entry into Mars' atmosphere had been timed with such exquisite precision that the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter was in position to take a picture of Curiosity floating down under its parachute. Modern guidance and navigation techniques are sufficiently precise that even after a flight of ten months and hundreds of millions of miles, one spaceship can look over its shoulder and snap a photo of another. Part of the mathematical tool kit that makes it all possible is Bayesian analysis, a statistical method for reducing unknown sources of error. The same kind of analysis can be performed on any data, including statistical data, and Nate Silver does this with polling data over at FiveThirtyEight ... and, for what it's worth, it's a mathematical tool kit that Joe Scarborough has gone on public record describing as "a joke."

Mind you, I enjoy his program greatly, and my wife watches it every morning. But Joe, if you don't understand what Bayesian analysis is or how it works, could you kindly shut the Hell up about it?

We're down to the last four days, my friends. It's the two-minute warning. Either man could win at this point, obviously, but the probabilities are beginning to narrow down. Nate Silver's analogy of Barack Obama being ahead by a field goal is an apt one. If he can get a first down, he can run out the clock. About all Romney can hope for is for him to fumble, or throw a pick-six. And it's important to note that either of those two things could happen. It's all coming down to a handful of states, and even a handful of counties within those states. With fewer than a hundred hours to go, every second counts.

And now, over to the part of the program that Joe hates: the numbers. As usual, my data sources are Intrade, FiveThirtyEight, and Pollster. Incidentally, I'll answer a question, in case you're curious: why those three? I like Intrade, because it captures that whole "wisdom of crowds" thing. And it was freakishly accurate last time. Until it gets something important horribly wrong, it's in the mix. And I like FiveThirtyEight, because it uses techniques I learned during my time as a GN&C weenie in graduate school. Pollster, on the other hand, uses a more traditional "poll of polls" approach. If three different methods reach more or less the same answer, then it's probably a pretty dependable answer. Anyway, for the last time this season, here they are, current as of Friday afternoon.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D): 66.9%, 290 EV (+3.1%, +14 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 33.1%, 244 EV (-3.2%, -14 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D): 81.1%, 303.3 EV (+6.7%, +7.9 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 18.9%, 234.7 EV (-6.7%, -7.9 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 237 EV (+/- 0)
Lean D: 44 EV (+4)
Tossup: 66 (+11)
Lean R: 0 (-15)
Strong R: 191 (+/- 0)

There's no good news here for a Republican. The closest thing to good news for Romney is that he's got a firm floor of 191. That hasn't budged in months. But his "lean" support has bounced into and out of the "toss-up" column all along. Now, I think that a fair bit of that will end up in his court. But from that firm floor of 191, he needs all of the toss-ups, plus at least 13 from Obama's "leaning" column. And I don't think he's going to get all of the toss-ups. Some of those are going to bounce Obama's way, and that's all gravy anyway, since if all his "strong" and "lean" support proves out, that's all he needs.

What Mitt Romney Must Do: He's got to get every last one of his people to the polls. Every. Last. One. And even that might not be enough. But that's what it comes down to, now. His campaign has to execute, and get their people in to vote.

What Barack Obama Must Do: See above, except that he's working from a slightly better position. As I said earlier, all he needs is a first down and he can run out the clock. His main enemy now isn't Romney, it's Complacency. He can still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, if he works at it. Execution, and a strong ground game, those are the keys.

And The Winner Is... Unemployment is down. The housing market is entering a real recovery. Gas prices are stable. Incumbent Presidents almost never lose unless the economy is totally dead, the international situation has gone south, or both. While the economy isn't what anyone would call good, it's better now than it has been, and that's good enough for the advantages of incumbency to work their magic. So, I'm going to make my semi-official prediction: Barack Obama wins re-election, with 303 votes in the Electoral College. The popular vote will probably be 51-49, or something very close to it. It's a closer race than last time, and Mitt Romney has run a pretty good race for someone who has always come across as a collaboration between the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab and Disney's Animatronics. But this was always Obama's race to lose, and in that first debate, he sure gave it the old college try. If you can still find someone willing to take the bet, I'd take 2-1 odds, and I'd take 300 for the over-under in the Electoral College.

It's too late now to vote early. But, it's never too late to vote often! I'll check in Tuesday night, and see how things turn out.

Election 2012: Into The Last Lap

And with the last debate in the can, the campaign rolls past the starting gate into the last lap. In only eleven days, we go to the polls to elect the next President of the United States, the entire House of Representatives, and a third of the Senate.

The last debate didn't tell us anything we didn't already know. There were a few good zingers about horses and bayonets, and "The '80s called, they want their foreign policy back" is ... well, not a classic, but still pretty funny. Romney does seem pretty fixated on Russia. It sure looks like he wants to have a Navy built to take on the Red Banner Northern Fleet, an Air Force equipped to take on Soviet Frontal Aviation, and an Army ready to bust up an assault from the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany. Never mind that none of those things have existed in the last twenty years. We've gotta be ready for those sneaky Russian bastiges.

I do have to say a word in defense of bayonets, though. There are going to be times when having a stabby bit to put on the end of your rifle will come in pretty handy. Case in point:



We'll probably never see horse cavalry again, but a blade plus mechanical advantage will never go entirely out of style.

Now, with both campaigns beginning to pursue their endgames, we get to see how it plays out. The Republicans have bet heavily on the SuperPAC-funded advertisements, while the Democrats are relying on saturating the important "battleground" states with more campaign offices. Air superiority versus ground superiority, if you will. It'll be very interesting to see how this one ends. And there are liable to be more than a couple of frustrated billionaires, if it proves that they couldn't buy the election outright, after all.

And now, on to the numbers. As usual, my sources are Intrade, FiveThirtyEight, and Pollster. Information is current as of Friday evening.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D): 63.8%, 276 EV (+2.3%, -16 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 36.3%, 260 EV (-2.1%, +18 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D): 74.4%, 295.4 EV (+6.5%, +7.6 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 25.6%, 242.6 EV (-6.5%, -7.6 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 237 (+20)
Lean D: 40 (-20)
Tossup: 55 (+/- 0)
Lean R: 15 (+/- 0)
Strong R: 191 (+/- 0)

First, it looks like the only movement on Pollster was a firming-up of Democratic support. If all they do is hold onto what they've got, Pollster has Obama winning 277 votes in the Electoral College. Team Romney's performance is essentially flat. That's bad. He really needs to start pulling some of those toss-up states into his Lean column, and then pull some of that into his Strong column. That hasn't happened, despite his strong showing in the first debate. If there's no movement, soon, that's a really bad sign.

It may already be too late. The time for plans and policy is over, now it's all about execution.

What Romney Must Do: Team Romney faces a daunting mathematical proposition. They have to have all of the toss-up states, all of Obama's weaker support, plus 24 EVs worth of Obama's stronger support. It's doable, particularly if Team Obama screws up something important in the next week and a half, but it's virtually impossible without outside help in the form of an international disaster or major unforced opposition error. Moderate Mitt has to hit the trail, hard, and try to win the center. That's his only path to daylight.

What Obama Must Do: Really, he has to approach the endgame as if he were in Romney's position. He has to go for each and every one of the tossup states, Romney's softer support, and even some of his core support. But the truth is, he doesn't need to win all that much of any of the above categories. Going by the Pollster map, all he's got to do is keep what he's got, and he's in. His worst enemy at this point is complacency. He's got to avoid it like Death itself. He's got to run hard, every day, until the polls close on November 6th.

And The Winner Is... I'm really tempted to copy and paste last week's entry. Nothing important has changed. The odds are still hovering around 3-2 in favor of re-election, and the solid over/under in the Electoral College is still 290. It's creeping upwards, though. There's still a case, getting better by the day, for 300. But I don't think there's going to be much movement from that range. We'll know more by Tuesday.

As always, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: T-18 And Counting

A pretty big week, all in all. There's a lot that I'm saving for after Election Day, which is less than three weeks out, now. Consider this a preview of coming attractions.

 First, an Austrian named Felix Baumgartner rode a balloon up to 128,000 feet, then took the short way down:



Second, the hits just keep on coming for Lance:



Third, Alpha Centauri has at least one planet! That we can see! And it's about Earth-sized! But holy moley it's hot:



Fourth, the rover Curiosity has found some shiny stuff on Mars. Dare I say it? Dare I? I think I do ... THERE'S GOLD IN THEM THAR HILLS! Maybe. It could be something else. But, seriously, it'd be pretty odd if Earth wound up with all of the inner Solar System's share, don't you think?

Oh yeah, and there was another Presidential debate this week. Some of you may have watched it.

In the last two entries, I've said that Obama had to bring his "A" game to this second debate, or he'd be in real trouble. And, that's exactly what he did. He turned in as good a performance as I've seen from him in a debate. He didn't let any of Romney's assertions go unchallenged. And he got in some pretty decent jabs of his own. Plus, it looks like we got a brand new meme out of the deal.

I swear, future historians are going to look at our time, and wonder exactly what the Hell we were smoking.

Still, this was a really good debate. Neither candidate gave the other any room to hide. Both men were able to showcase their best qualities. And that was far more important for Obama than for Romney, since it partially offsets his poor performance from the first debate. I say partially, because that bell just can't be un-rung. Look at it this way: if we score this as a best-of-three series, it's one each now, with one more to go. It's a far closer race than it was four years ago, that's for sure.

How much closer? Well, let's have a look. As usual, our data comes from Intrade, from FiveThirtyEight, and from Pollster. It's current as of Friday evening.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D): 61.5%, 292 EV (+2.0%, +11 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 38.4%, 242 EV (-2.4%, -6 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D): 67.9%, 287.8 EV (+6.8%, +4.7 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 32.1%, 250.2 EV (-6.8%, -4.7 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 217 (+7)
Lean D: 60 (+13)
Tossup: 55 (-20)
Lean R: 15 (+/- 0)
Strong R: 191 (+/- 0)

To an extent, this represents a reversion to the mean, as far as the odds are concerned. The really interesting thing to me is that Romney's figures on Pollster are unchanged from the last time we checked, a week ago. And that's pretty bad news for Team Romney. Possibly worse news is that his "strong" support is unchanged over two solid weeks. Although you could argue that's good news, insofar as it means his base is rock-solid. But the base won't win him this election. The center wins this election, for whoever stakes it out and holds it. There's not a tossup state that Romney doesn't need ... plus, he has to pry off some of Obama's "leaning" support. That's a bad place to be, with only two weeks to go. I mean, it's possible, but the odds are against it.

What Romney Must Do: Reversion to the mean is a bad sign. He needs to knock it out of the park Monday night, and hope for some blunders from the other side that he can exploit. The good news is that he's nowhere near as bad off as McCain was at this point in 2008. Then, it was pretty much over for all intents and purposes. The McCain campaign was in an inverted flat spin with all engines on fire, with his odds of success somewhere around 5-to-1 against. This is still close enough that a strong Romney performance could convince enough voters that old Mitt might be able to do the job, especially if Obama falters.

What Obama Must Do: Prepare. He's sitting on a fairly solid foreign policy record. Bin Laden and Qaddafi are dead, we're out of Iraq, we're winding up our affairs in Afghanistan, there's a lot of good to tout. But he cannot take any of that for granted. He's got to come out swinging on Monday, just like he did last Tuesday. He's got to defend his record, vigorously, and point out his opponent's weaknesses. He's got an easier job than his opponent does. In some ways that's a curse, because it invites complacency. Complacency kills.

And The Winner Is: The odds are holding pretty steady at 3-2 in favor of re-election. I think they'll hold there for about another week, unless Romney utterly implodes on Monday night, which would surprise me. The hard numbers say that 290 is the over/under for Electoral College votes, but if you're bold, there's a pretty good case to be made for 300.

Remember, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: VP Debate Update

There's an adage that says: Age and treachery will always triumph over youth and enthusiasm. I think that provides a fairly adequate explanation of what happened last night.

I do think it's important to say that Ryan was far better prepared, and gave a far better account of himself, than did the previous Republican Vice-Presidential nominee. But that might be damning with faint praise. The previous VP debate was ... bizarre, to say the least. Ryan was able to participate in a coherent argument. I'm still not entirely sure whose questions Palin was answering. Although, I did see something a few weeks back that gave me some food for thought. As it turns out, there's a technique that most candidates use called the "pivot", that allows them to "answer" a question they don't actually want to answer, while giving the appearance of having answered it. If you watch closely, you can see them do it. But not everyone is good at it. Biden and Ryan pivot with the practiced ease of Olympic-class gymnasts. Palin simply wasn't in their class, and it showed. It's quite likely she was trying to do the same thing they do, but just didn't have the verbal sleight-of-hand to pull it off.

But back to last night ... By most accounts, Biden kept Ryan on the defensive most of the night. The question is, how does this affect the overall race? Odds are, not by much. The VP debate hardly ever shifts the overall race. There are several examples where the VP debate was a total massacre, but the "winning" ticket nevertheless went down to defeat at the polls in November, Bentsen vs. Quayle being one prominent example. While yesterday's performance by Biden should give Democrats some cause for hope, it's going to be far more important what Obama does on Tuesday. He's got to bring his "A" game that night, and come out swinging. Otherwise, things could get grim for Team Blue.

And now, the numbers. As usual, our data comes courtesy of Intrade, FiveThirtyEight, and Pollster. The information is current as of Friday night.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D): 59.5%, 281 EV (-7.8%, -36 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 40.8%, 248 EV (+8.1%, +18 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D): 61.1%, 283.1 EV (-23.8%, -34.6 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 38.9%, 254.9 EV (+23.8%, +34.6 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 210 (-41)
Lean D: 47 (+8)
Tossup: 75 (+18)
Lean R: 15 (+15)
Strong R: 191 (+/- 0)

At first glance, you'd be tempted to say that the post-Debate 1 slide continues unabated, but a look at the time histories on Intrade says otherwise. The slide has stopped, pretty much at the same point it's been for the last year or so, with a few excursions here and there. Again, it's interesting to note how closely Intrade and FiveThirtyEight correspond to one another. Between them, they're liable to converge on the "truth" value before Election Day ... but there's a lot of volatility in those numbers at the moment. Last week, we saw a big pro-Obama swing from the previous check, post-DNC; and this week, we see a big pro-Romney swing. The undecideds are just now checking in, and trying to figure out who they're going to line up behind. Post-DNC, they really didn't like Romney so much, and after the first debate, their confidence in Obama took a hit. This is why next Tuesday is so important: it's a chance for Obama to re-establish confidence.

That said, it's interesting to note that Romney's core support is essentially unchanged, since early summer. He's had the same 191 electoral votes firmly in his column for ages now. While Obama has had states wander in and out of the "strong" zone, Romney hasn't had that problem. Also, one thing to keep an eye on is the fact that by Pollster's estimate, Obama falls short of 270 for the first time since we've been looking at Pollster's data. This isn't a chime of doom, necessarily; Obama only has to win Ohio or Florida, or Virginia plus one other toss-up state. Romney has to have them all. Well, almost all. He could probably do without Nevada or Colorado.

Still, this is the closest things have been in quite a while. This is liable to be the week that makes or breaks the campaign.

What Romney Must Do: He's had a week of solid good momentum, what he needs to do now is not screw it up. He has to avoid unforced errors. He has to avoid being painted as an extremist. And he really needs to win all the toss-up states. His core support isn't big enough to deliver the race, he needs all the help he can get. A month or so ago, I'd have said his odds were pretty slim; but they're looking better now than they ever have. He needs a strong performance on Tuesday night. That won't seal the deal by itself, but he has to hit another one out of the park to demonstrate that the first one wasn't a fluke.

What Obama Must Do: He owes Biden, big time. And the best way to pay him back? Put on his best game face for Tuesday night, and pin Romney to the mat. While he's had an awful week, he still enjoys a lead in the polls, and a strong comeback performance in the second debate will go a long way towards restoring people's confidence in him. What he can't afford, though, is another lackluster job. He can't make any serious gaffes. He needs to be able to sell his record to the public. If he can do these things on Tuesday night, not only can he stop the slide, he can reverse it.

And The Winner Is... We're back to 3-2 in favor of re-election, where we've been for most of the last year. Yeah, I'd take those odds. If you're feeling brave, you might even go for 2-1. The over-under sits at about 280 today, the lowest I've seen it, but I think going as high as 310 might not be totally unreasonable. We'll know far better in a few weeks' time. I think the projections from one week out from Election Day should be pretty solid. Last time, the projections from three weeks out were pretty good, but I think we have far more volatility this time around. We'll take a one-week sounding, and see how that compares to the actual results. That will be interesting to see.

Remember, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: Debate 1 Update

His side had led the contest throughout the spring and summer. He had been confident of victory. Early this week, some troubling signs began to emerge, and then on Wednesday, disaster. Poor play put his prospects, and his team's, in grave doubt.

But enough about Josh Hamilton and the Texas Rangers. There was also this year's first Presidential debate on Wednesday. And unlike the Rangers, who face a Wild Card Thunderdome tonight in Arlington (two teams enter, one team leaves), President Obama has two more debates to go. Panic is unwarranted at this point.

Just about all the observers awarded the night to Mitt Romney, and justly so. His style and delivery were outstanding. And it may well be that Romney's "October Surprise" will turn out to be his sudden, heretofore unannounced tack to the center starting with the first debate. This Mitt Romney didn't look like a far-right Tea Party lunatic. This is the Mitt Romney that convinced a majority of Massachusetts voters to elect him Governor. He's also the Mitt Romney that's been mostly AWOL for the last eighteen months, while his body double has been courting the fanatics of the hard right for all he's worth. And that brings up an interesting point ... just how will his hard-right base react to this slide to the center? Isn't that what they were afraid of all along? We'll just have to see how this plays out over the next few weeks.

The Big Day is just over one month away.

And now, the numbers. As usual, our data comes from Intrade, from FiveThirtyEight, and from Pollster. All data current as of late Friday afternoon.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D): 67.3%, 317 EV (+9.6%, +32 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 32.7%, 230 EV (-9.2%, -17 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D): 84.9%, 317.7 EV (+5.8%, +3.5 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 15.1%, 220.3 EV (-5.2%, -3.5 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 251 (+40)
Lean D: 39 (+3)
Tossup: 57 (-43)
Lean R: 0 (-16)
Strong R: 191 (+16)

On the one hand, the numbers tell a pretty encouraging story for Team Obama. His post-convention bounce has legs. He's made ground on every indicator we watch since the DNC closed up shop. But ... Intrade had him at nearly six-to-one on Monday. His performance Wednesday hurt him. Not seriously, not yet, but another one or two like it could put him in serious trouble.

Interesting point: Intrade's EV totals are converging on FiveThirtyEight's EV totals. If you remember, last time around, this happened about three weeks out, and were within one or two of the actual totals. Historically, the debates haven't really changed the trajectory of a race much, but this one may break the mold ... all the same, 317-230 is beginning to look pretty solid.

What Romney Must Do: Stay on this target and fire for effect. The pivot to the center is what John McCain utterly failed to do last time around. It's vital to look sane and Presidential in the remaining two debates, and equally vital for Paul Ryan to look non-maniacal in the VP debate next week. It's also vital to look and sound more centrist than during the primary campaign. It looks like Mitt Romney understands this, which will make this an interesting scrum indeed.

What Obama Must Do: One shanked debate does not a disaster make, but two could. He has got to do better week after next, and he needs to avoid unforced errors as well. When they next meet, he has got to look relaxed, confident, and on top of his game. He's the incumbent, and the economy is improving. But he can still snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, either through inattention or through mistakes.

And The Winner Is... As bad as his week's been, Intrade still has Obama as a 2-1 favorite for re-election. I like those odds. I sure wouldn't go any higher at this point in the game. But I'd go up to 310 for the over/under.

Remember, it's just about early-voting time, depending on where you live. Vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: Post-DNC Update

Now, it's all official. The two parties have confirmed in convention what we've all known for months. The Obama/Biden ticket has been officially nominated by the Democratic Party to face the Romney/Ryan ticket of the Republican Party in November's Presidential election. The conventions have been illuminating. Not always in the ways that the parties expected, but illuminating nevertheless.

For one, Peter Beinart noted at the Daily Beast that the Democrats have acquired the knack for message discipline. Once upon a time, that was a Republican knack. Under Reagan, the Republicans reliably fell in line, heeding his half-joking commandment that Thou Shalt Not Speak Ill Of A Fellow Republican. It's almost impossible to imagine anyone at the 1984 Republican convention going rogue. The 2012 convention, on the other hand, consisted of almost nothing else, with the possible exceptions of Ryan and Romney themselves. The Democrats, on the other hand, all looked like they were pulling in the same direction. Sure, they were interested in making themselves look good. The Democratic National Convention has, historically, been the debut venue for the party's rising stars. The last two Democratic Presidents, after all, used their keynote addresses as springboards to launch their national presences. But their speeches were primarily touting the virtues of their ticket, as opposed to polishing their resumes for 2016. I don't know that it means anything in particular, but I just find it curious that the characteristically disorganized Democrats have discovered unity of message at the same time that the characteristically regimented Republicans seem to have lost it.

The other interesting difference, and one that I did not anticipate, was that Biden and Obama gave their speeches on the same night. Which is why I said last week that I'd be missing Biden's address. Instead, I missed Bill Clinton's. This leads to an interesting national variation in television ratings. Bill Clinton's speech won the ratings battle in most markets, with the exception of Texas. It's not that Texas hates Bill Clinton. It's that the Dallas Cowboys were playing the New York Giants. We'd probably skip a live broadcast of the Second Coming if the Cowboys were on the other channel. So, while most of the nation was watching Bill Clinton do what he does best, most of us were watching Tony Romo tear the Giants' secondary a new one. While I'd make that choice again with no regrets, I do kind of wish I'd seen it. Clinton was in rare form. He showed his skill, not just at communicating but at connecting, and reminded us how he won two terms.

Speaking of sports, James Fallows did a compare and contrast between political reporters and sports reporters. And he's right. You know who's brutally honest? Who tells it like it is, no matter if he's talking about friend or foe? The guy on your local sports radio station. You do find the occasional "homer", who finds no fault with his favorites, but they get no respect and hardly ever last long. People complain about our reporters covering elections like they were sporting events. Oh, would that this were actually true. Journalism would be better for it. We need for our political reporters to be more like sportscasters, not less.

Another interesting compare-and-contrast data point has come out of the conventions: the Romney campaign's heavy investment in air time versus the Obama campaign's heavy investment in the ground game. Romney's Super-PACs are producing ads and buying time like there's no tomorrow. Obama's campaign has far more local offices and workers in the swing states. It will be interesting to see how these divergent strategies play out against one another.

And now, let's have a look at the numbers. As usual, I'm drawing my information from Intrade, FiveThirtyEight, and Pollster. The data are current as of Friday evening.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D): 57.9%, 285 EV (+0.5%, +4 EV)

Mitt Romney (R): 41.9%, 247 EV (-0.7%, +15 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D): 78.1%, 314.2 EV (+6.5%, +11.8 EV)

Mitt Romney (R): 21.9%, 223.8 EV (-6.5%, -11.8 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 211 (+/- 0)

Lean D: 36 (+16)

Tossup: 100 (-16)

Lean R: 16 (+/- 0)

Strong R: 175 (+/- 0)

I wish now that I'd pulled a set of numbers immediately prior to the RNC. Then, we'd have a better idea of exactly what the effect of each convention was. Obama has definitely gotten a poll boost, as seen in the Pollster data, but the Intrade numbers haven't moved much. Granted, Intrade is still giving him 3-2 odds for re-election. But FiveThirtyEight is quoting 3-1 odds at this point, with the convention giving Obama a quick +6.5% jolt. Another interesting point is what Pollster seems to be telling us this week: that Obama has picked up sixteen electoral votes from toss-up states as part of this boost. Even with a relatively lackluster economy, he's still chugging along.

What Romney Must Do: He basically has to run the table in the toss-up states. Add his "strong" and "lean" votes together, and he's still eighty electoral votes short, with only 100 on the table. Which is to say, all of them but Ohio. That's a pretty tall order. Not impossible, but he's got to run a flawless, error-free campaign from here on in. There's no margin for error. And one of the go-to tropes for Republicans, weakness on national security, is simply laughable now. Obama hasn't exactly been shy about handing out the explodium Candygrams and bullet fiestas for people he thinks need killing. They might try painting him as a weakling pacifist ... but Osama bin Laden and Moammar Gadhafi would probably disagree. If they could, which they can't. So, Team Romney has to hit the economic message hard. Without reminding the voting public that he looks like the guy who fired them.

What Obama Must Do: But this is no time for Team Obama to be complacent. If the electorate gets sufficiently discontented, they may well give Mr. Romney a tryout. And he's facing a pretty steep differential in available cash for advertisements. But he's got a few things that Romney doesn't. For one, he's got the Oval Office, and Air Force One. All the advantages of incumbency. And the public's deep distrust of Mitt Romney, the man. He's also got to run a fairly error-free campaign, but he's got more of a margin for error than Team Romney does. While Romney has to win 80 out of 100 toss-ups, Obama only has to win twenty-one. That's Florida, by itself. Or Ohio, plus any one other state. He's betting on his superior ground game to even out Romney's money advantage. That may prove the way to bet.

And The Winner Is: Obama still enjoys 3-2 odds on Intrade, much like most of the last year and a half. The next month bears watching. By the end of September, we should have a pretty good idea of how the air-versus-ground strategies are working. By the middle of October, we should have a really good idea. But for now, I'd take 3-2 odds on Obama/Biden for the win, and I'd still take 290 electoral votes for the over/under.

Remember, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: Post-RNC Update

Well ... that was certainly interesting. Given what went down last night, I think it would be appropriate to recap the Republican National Convention with the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

The Good: I have been saying for some time that Mitt Romney's Vice-Presidential pick would give us a bit of a window into his decision-making. It's the first Presidential decision that the nominee makes. What, why and how gives you the template for their decision-making, and some idea of how their Administration would go. We saw Reagan and Clinton both pick former rivals as running mates. We saw Bush the Elder pick a non-entity. Bush the Younger picked Dick Cheney, who was the chair of the search committee, and who became a virtual shadow President. And do we need to rehash McCain's choice? Mitt Romney ended up picking Paul Ryan. And yes, I think that's a good thing. And yes, I think that reflects credit upon Romney as a candidate. He didn't pick someone to be a media-wowing "game changer". He picked someone with serious policy cred. Even if you don't agree with him (and in a lot of ways I don't) you can't dismiss him out of hand. Not only does he have some policy chops, and some legislative experience, he also comes from a swing state. That's a pretty canny choice. It brings me a bit of relief. The world probably won't end if Romney were to win.

The Bad: But ... what on God's green earth was Team Romney smoking last night? I mean, I like Eastwood as an actor. I like him as a director. But dear Lord, improv is not his form. And that was a huge speed bump in what could have been a perfectly stellar nomination night. The video got rave reviews, and was a great starting piece. If they'd slid from that into Rubio's speech, and if Rubio's speech has been more about Romney than about Rubio, then the lead-up to Romney's acceptance speech would have been an ascending crescendo of splendor. But no. Which makes you ask, who's driving this bus, anyway?

The Ugly: The purified, distilled crazy at the bottom of the pot, that would be my suspicion. The incident with the CNN camera operator -- you know, the one where they threw peanuts at an African-American and said "this is how we feed animals" -- tells you just about all you need to know about the sorry state of the GOP today. This is why I can't be a Republican. They can claim they were just random guys, but you know that they had to have been either delegates or alternates, which means that their home state party vetted them and sent them as their representatives. No one gets out on the convention floor that's not a delegate or an alternate. This is distilled, concentrated ugliness. The very idea of an African-American President utterly unhinges them. Republicans don't like it when people say this, but... Pray tell, where was the Tea Party, alleged "libertarians" that they claim to be, when the Patriot Act was being passed? Where was the Tea Party when Bush was spending like a drunken sailor on shore leave? Nowhere, that's where. They didn't show up until November 5, 2008. I find the timing suspicious.

And now, the numbers. As usual, my data sources are Intrade, FiveThirtyEight, and Pollster. Information is current as of Friday afternoon.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D): 57.4%, 281  EV (-0.4%, -6 EV)
Mitt Romney (R): 42.6%, 232 EV (+2.8%, -18 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D): 71.6%, 302.4 EV (+0.5%, +2.8 EV)
Mitt Romney(R): 28.4%, 235.6 EV (-0.5%, -2.8 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 211 (+20)
Lean D: 20 (-79)
Tossup: 116 (+59)
Lean R: 16 (+16)
Strong R: 175 (-16)

The Pollster map is fascinating, as always, but I'm not really sure what it means. Both sides' support is softening in the negativity of the campaign. But the negativity is hurting Romney far more than it's hurting Obama. Romney is softening in places he can't afford to, and still has to clean up all but one of the toss-ups. Obama only has to pick up two or three of the toss-ups, so long as he can hold onto his "lean" states.

And I'm still curious about the divergence between the gambling public and the pollsters. I'm pretty sure it comes down to the fact that a man might lie to a pollster, but won't lie to a bookie.

What Romney Must Do: That last-day bobble at the convention was unfortunate. They needed a more coherent message. They're going to have to go at it hammer-and-tongs over Labor Day weekend, then there's a week-long blackout while all eyes are on Charlotte. There's really no option for them but the nuclear option: go negative, and go big. Negative advertising sickens independents and rallies the base, at least in theory. It probably won't work. But that's about the only card they have to play.

What Obama Must Do: Avoid major screw-ups in their own convention. Draw the public's attention to their accomplishments in domestic and foreign policy, such as they are. Obama never did a very good job of selling health care reform, this is his chance for a do-over. And Biden's idea for a slogan is still a pretty good one: "General Motors is alive, and Bin Laden is dead." (But sorry, Joe, I won't be watching your speech. You're on opposite Cowboys/Giants. I'll read the transcript later.)

And The Winner Is: Odds are holding steady at 3-2, as they have for months. I don't expect much movement in the next two weeks. I'd take Obama/Biden at 3-2 for the win, and I'd probably take 290 EVs for the over/under.

Remember, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: Let The Games Begin

A man who's legally blind, who can barely read the morning paper, has recently set a new world record in archery. Another man, born with no feet, is competing as a sprinter. For only the fifth time in history, a weightlifter has cleaned three times his own weight. I love the Olympics. You see the very best of humanity on display, and you see the barriers of the impossible pushed a little farther back each time. But, as awesome as those Games are, those aren't the ones I'm talking about today.

In just over three weeks, the Republican National Convention gets underway in Tampa, Florida. In just about a month, the Democratic National Convention kicks off in Charlotte, North Carolina. And in 95 days, just over three months, we go to the polls to elect the next President of the United States.

The so-called "Silly Season" is just about over. The fall campaign is about to commence for real. Ladies and gentlemen, it's on like Donkey Kong.

As always, our numbers come courtesy of Intrade, from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, and from Pollster.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D) 57.8%, 287 EV (+1.9%, +/- 0 EV)
Mitt Romney (R) 39.8%, 250 EV (-1.2%, -9 EV)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D) 71.1%, 299.6 EV (+2.8%, +/- 0 EV)
Mitt Romney (R) 28.9%, 238.4 EV (-2.8%, +/- 0 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 191 (-30)
Lean D: 99 (+80)
Tossup: 57 (-50)
Lean R: 0 (-10)
Strong R: 191 (+10)

General Impressions: Pollster tells a fascinating story here. Obama and Romney have exactly the same amount of "strong" support in the Electoral College, but Obama has a ton more "leaning" states. Romney has none. That's an interesting point -- Romney goes straight from "strong" to "toss-up", with no states leaning in his direction. I don't know what that means yet. One thing it could mean is that the Bain attacks, and the mess with the tax returns, seems to be getting some traction. But it also shows a vulnerability in the Obama camp, his "strong" support has softened considerably since the last time we looked at the figures. One way to read this is that Romney has firmed up his soft support, while Obama's firm support has slipped. But, how does that scan when stacked up to the fact that the tossups seem to have broken all one way?

It's a confusing picture, but a very interesting one. It may well be that the people who like Romney really like him, but there's an awfully wide canyon between that and the undecideds.

I'm also curious as to the reason between the wide gulf between Intrade's percentages and Nate Silver's. Mind you, they both predict the same result. But the gambling public is giving Romney more love than the pollsters are, just right now. It'll be curious to see how closely these two sets of data converge, as we get closer to the big day. And, it'll be very interesting to see what the overnight trade volume does, the night before Election Day.

What Obama Must Do: His "You Didn't Build That" remark was a huge unforced error. He can't afford too many of those. The economic recovery is still very weak. Unemployment is still fairly high. The relatively good news is that gas prices aren't sky-high, and home prices seem to have bottomed out, and are on the rise again. What he needs to do at this point is sell the idea that he's on the side of the middle class, and also sell an agenda for sustainable economic growth. At the same time, he also has to convince the public that the Republicans either can't or won't do a better job. He's got a considerable advantage, even with the relatively soft economy. But the race is going to tighten, depending on how Romney plays the next three weeks.

What Romney Must Do: Diplomacy, not to put too fine a point on it, isn't his strong suit. Fortunately for him, though, the election isn't being held in London. Irritating foreigners not only isn't something that's likely to offend his base, it's liable to be something that endears him to his base. Which is helpful, since Romney is still running for the whole-hearted support of the hard right. If I were one of his advisers, the Pollster data above would be very troubling to me. With his "strong" and "leaning" support, Obama has enough EVs to win re-election. Romney simply must run the table in the toss-up states, and pull at least 21 EVs of Obama's current support. That may well be doable. Hell, it is doable. But it's going to be hard sledding for this particular candidate, who isn't overly blessed with warmth. I'm not saying he's a bad man, but he's got a fairly stiff public demeanor. For all his faults, George Bush was someone a lot of people could have a backyard BBQ with. But Romney looks more like the guy who just fired you. That's when he's not looking like a collaboration between the MIT Artificial Intelligence Lab and Disney's Animatronics. And I'm not sure we've seen the real Mitt Romney stand up yet. But in three weeks' time, we'll get an unparalleled glimpse into his thought processes. As I've said before, the VP selection will speak volumes for the man's judgement, and how he goes about making decisions.

The VP pick is absolutely vital for Romney. His best option is someone personable, who's also palatable to the centrist voters out there. But he may feel stampeded into going hard-right, to cement the support of his base. If he does the former, we'll have a real race on our hands. If the latter, he's probably toast.

And The Winner Is... Intrade is back to giving 3-2 odds in favor of re-election. Nate Silver's numbers work out to 7-3 in favor, just shy of 2-1, but as I said last time, I'm not comfortable jumping into 2-1 territory yet. I want to see how the conventions go, and how the economy's shaking out come Labor Day.

Remember, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: RNC Minus 52 Days And Counting

The summer doldrums are upon us. Genuine news items are few and far between, so the silly stuff gets amped up to eleven, and passed off as real news. This is a direct consequence of modern cable news. They have twenty-four hours a day to fill, regardless of whether or not anything truly interesting is happening. If no real news is available, they have to invent it.

The biggest news of the last week was less interesting than it might have been. The most interesting story was always, "What will Obama do if his signature domestic policy initiative is overturned by the Supreme Court?" But we'll never know, since the Supreme Court upheld the ACA. There's an untold story there that's probably pretty fascinating. Justice Scalia's dissent actually reads as if it were written for the majority, which means that Chief Justice Roberts jumped sides at some point, probably fairly late in the game. We may never know exactly how or even why Scalia peed in Roberts' Wheaties ... but the result is purely status quo ante. It might become an issue for the fall campaign. It might prove to be an energizing factor for the Tea Party fanatics. But in the end, it will probably mean far less than the unemployment rate, gasoline prices, and overall consumer and business confidence. Those will be the telling figures of merit this fall.

And now, with fifty-two days until the Republican convention kicks off in Tampa, we'll take another look at the numbers. As always, our figures are from Intrade, from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, and from Pollster.

From Intrade:

Barack Obama (D) 55.9%, 287 EV (+2.4%, N/A)

Mitt Romney (R) 41.0%, 259 EV (-2.1%, N/A)

From FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D) 68.3%, 299.6 EV (+5.5%, +7.8 EV)

Mitt Romney (R) 31.7%, 238.4 EV (-5.5%, -7.8 EV)

From Pollster:

Strong D: 221 (-4)

Lean D: 19 (-26)

Tossup: 107 (+30)

Lean R: 10 (-11)

Strong R: 181 (+11)

General Impressions: There's a new market on Intrade for predicting the Electoral Vote count. It was not available last time, so we don't have any deltas yet. Speaking of Intrade, there's a potentially interesting story regarding the ACA decision. I was checking the market early Thursday morning before the decision was announced, and saw that prices for the "Overturn" contract had fallen from 80% to 67% in fairly heavy overnight trading. Maybe someone in the know unloaded their positions? Suffice to say I was rather less than astonished when the decision came down. I'm thinking someone blabbed, but there's no way to prove it.

FiveThirtyEight is showing a fairly substantial improvement for President Obama's re-election bid, though the reason why is not so easy to determine. He may be getting a small bounce from the Court's affirmation of his key domestic policy initiative. It's a sure thing he'd have taken a huge hit if it had been overturned. But I'm not sure how durable such a bump is. Economic conditions are far more important ... and they're not all that bad. They're not all that good, either. Things will be far clearer come September.

Pollster tells an interesting tale. The race is tightening, somewhat. Pollster tells us that Obama's support has softened slightly since we last looked, but Romney's support hasn't improved. It's firmed up, but he's not expanded into the middle. And that's a problem for Team Romney going forward. If he's still running for the support of his base going into the convention, he's got some really hard sledding ahead of him.

What Obama Must Do: I could almost cut-and-paste my last entry. He has to remind the public that while things aren't as good as they could be, they're nowhere near as bad as they might be. But he can't lean too hard on what the previous Administration did or did not do. The Court decision gives him an opening to run on the ACA's more popular provisions -- no more pre-existing conditions, less people uninsured, and the ability to keep dependents on a parent's policy until age 26. And the Court's decision in regard to the Arizona immigration law gives him an opening to highlight the Tea Party's aversion to people of the wrong color. Tea Party supporters hate it when people say this, but I've said before that the Tea Party was originally going to call themselves the "White Guys Hopping Mad That A Black Guy Got Elected President" Party, but that wouldn't fit on their business cards. I think it's a fair criticism. Where was the Tea Party when President Bush enacted Medicare Part D? Where was the Tea Party when President Bush signed the Patriot Act? Where were they on issues where serious libertarians had serious problems with President Bush? Nowhere, that's where. But the day after Obama's election... Yeah. I find it really hard to take their libertarian posturings seriously. They give us a bad name.

What Romney Must Do: Hang the current economic woes around Obama's neck like an albatross. He can use the Right's anger at the ACA to keep the troops excited, but I'm convinced that the economy is the real swing issue this cycle. But he's got to be careful, very careful, using the ACA as a wedge issue. It's the sweatiest of sweaty dynamite in his hands. It was his baby, after all. Deny it as he might, its paternity is a matter of public record. Rarely was a more apt slogan coined when Pawlenty called it "Obamneycare." Every time he mentions it, he raises the dread possibility that people will remember whose idea it was in the first place.

And The Winner Is... Nothing important has changed, so I'd still take 3-2 odds on re-election. If you use Nate Silver's numbers, the odds are closer to 2-1, but I'm not sure I'd go that far yet. We need to see how the conventions go, first, and what the economy's doing.

Remember, vote early, and vote often!

Election 2012: RNC Minus 78 Days And Counting

Theoretically, the primary season isn't over until the respective parties have had their conventions and officially chosen their candidates. It's a nice theory. The problem with that theory is that it hasn't worked that way since 1968. The Democratic National Convention of 1968 was a goat-rope of such epic proportions that both parties have since reworked their primary processes that everyone knows who the nominee will be with months to spare before the convention gets underway. We've had ten primary contest seasons since then, and not one has yielded anything like a surprise. The closest we came was in 1976, when Team Reagan tried to push a rules change through the week before the convention. It's 78 days until the RNC opens for business, and 85 days until the Democrats bang the opening gavel in Charlotte, North Carolina. But the issue they're ostensibly meeting to decide has already been decided. There are only two other interesting questions in play: first, who will the respective VP nominees be; and second, what will the details of the party platforms look like?

The first bears more weight than the second. That's partly because the parties do a decent job of describing themselves, and therefore, the party platform shouldn't contain any surprises. And that's also because a nominee's VP pick is a huge "tell" as to how their decision-making process goes. All eyes are on Mitt Romney for this, since we all know who Obama's VP nominee will be.

I'm not going to engage in any speculation on what that choice will be. I don't know the man well enough. But I'm telling you, it's important. Everything up to this point has been smoke and mirrors. This is the first real, Presidential decision the man will make. It will give us a template of how he will make every other decision. Not until then will we really know what Mitt Romney is made of.

What I will speculate on is who will win in November. As usual, my go-to information sources are Intrade, Nate Silver, and Pollster. All three deal with the same basic kinds of information, but each presents it in a slightly different way. FiveThirtyEight and Pollster both deal with poll aggregation. But the key difference is that Nate Silver performs a kind of Monte Carlo analysis on the data, teasing probabilities out of the polls. But Pollster has a breakdown of Strong-Lean-Tossup states that I like. Intrade is more or less a result of bouncing that data off the general public, and lets us watch where people are putting their money. People might lie to a pollster, but they won't lie to their bookie.

And so, from Intrade:

Barack Obama (D) 53.5% ( -7.3% )
Mitt Romney (R) 43.1% ( +5.1% )

And from FiveThirtyEight:

Barack Obama (D) 291.8 EV, 62.8%
Mitt Romney (R) 246.2 EV, 37.2 %

And, lastly, from Pollster:

Strong D: 225
Lean D: 45
Tossup: 77
Lean R: 21
Strong R: 170

General Impression: So far, Obama enjoys a slight advantage, an advantage that is eroding slightly due to economic issues. That's what I see from the Intrade results, that have gone from 3-2 odds in favor of re-election to 5-4 odds in favor. The polls don't reflect this yet. But if things continue on this path, they might. For the partisans on either side, the economic issues don't matter. They'll show up for their side in November either way. But for the handful of voters in the middle, the economy is key. That's the handful that will decide the toss-up states, and may flip some of the weaker states from one column to another. The story that each campaign must sell to these undecided voters, the thing that they must convince them of, is that they will be better able to enact policies that will favor economic growth and more jobs.

What Obama Must Do: First, he has to show, clearly show, what he's done to arrest the economic nose-dive that was underway in late 2008 and early 2009. But he has to do that without looking like he's still blaming Bush for the current state of the economy. Whether that's true or not is beside the point. It's been four years, and people tire of that explanation. The second thing he has to do is highlight the dark side of Romney's business expertise. He's done that, albeit with a bit of a heavy hand. The third thing he has to do is shine a big, bright spotlight on Congress' inaction, paying special attention to the Republicans in the House and Senate that keep anything useful from being done. Running against the do-nothing Congress might even prove more effective than running against Romney.

What Romney Must Do: Simply this: hang the current economic pain around Obama's neck. Just that. Against that, tout his executive expertise in both the public and private sectors. It'll require a bit of fancy dancing around some of the things Bain Capital has done, and also a bit of fancy dancing around the fact that his official portrait as Governor has him holding a copy of the dreaded Health Care Reform he'd passed. But he's already done that dance in the primary. He might be able to do it again this fall. Or not, since Obama's bound to say this at least once during the debates: "Hey, I got the idea from that guy."

And The Winner Is... I'd still take 3-2 odds on Obama winning the general election. No elaborations above and beyond that -- we need to see what the private sector does over the summer, and what the economic picture is on or around Labor Day. Barring an implosion, 3-2 still seems like a good bet.

Election 2012: Primary Post-Mortem

And, that's a wrap. (Warning: Strong Language, last lines from Burn After Reading)



So, what did we learn, if anything, from Primary 2012? For one, we learned that the Old Guard of the Republican Party, even though it's not near as strong as it used to be, is still alive and kicking. The Tea Party candidates surged and floundered in their turns, but Romney somehow churned through it all and came out on top anyway. The cachet of being "Not Mitt Romney" never gleamed brightly enough to attract enough voters. Even in the midst of their burgeoning ideological rigidity, electability still matters. And for another, we learned that "It's His Turn" is a very powerful thing within the Republican Party. That may come as part of the first point, but it still bears some mention. Since Nixon, the majority of Republican candidates seem to have been the strongest challenger from the previous primary. In 1980, Reagan was the nominee, who ran a strong second in 1976. In 1988, Bush was the nominee, who ran a strong second in 1980. In 1996, Dole was the nominee, who had been a perennial contender since the last Ice Age. Bush the Younger in 2000 was an anomaly. But McCain in 2008 was not, and neither is Romney in 2012.

This, of course, sets the stage for Santorum in 2016. But, as much as I might like to savor the bowel-freezing horror that portends, we have another important event to consider. The General Election is now on like Donkey Kong. (As always, the numbers are courtesy of Intrade, current as of Friday evening.)

Barack Obama, 60.8%: His probability took a big hit last summer during the debt crisis, but has since recovered to the 60% level he's enjoyed for most of the last year and a half or so. This is looking like a modestly incumbent-friendly year so far. We're in a recovery -- not a booming recovery, but still, a recovery. Unemployment is down. GDP is up. Stocks are up. We've wound down Iraq, and we're winding down Afghanistan. If these trends continue, and there's no major shock event, the public's general tendency has been to re-elect the incumbent. Incumbent Presidents standing for re-election have generally won, unless the economy had been trending downward. Carter was turfed for a sour economy, and the Iranian situation. Bush the Elder was turfed for a sour economy. Reagan, Clinton, and Bush the Younger all had rising economies to buoy their re-election bids. Currently, it's looking to hold true for Obama as well.

Mitt Romney, 38.0%: This is a fact that Romney understands about as well as anyone else. So, he has to paint a picture that highlights a sour, lackluster economy. On top of that, he still has to contend with the fact that the base isn't all that fired up about his candidacy. The biggest thing to watch for in the Romney campaign will be his Vice-Presidential pick. Right now, the four top contenders are Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell, and Paul Ryan. But we may well see someone not on that list. The safe pick for Romney would be someone well-loved by the Republican base, someone who would solidify his right-wing street cred. But it's far from clear to me who that might be. The second biggest thing to watch for is whether or not Romney continues to tack to the right, both leading up to and after the Republican National Convention. Obama has enjoyed the incumbent's luxury of not having a serious primary challenger. The main advantage of that is that he's been able to command the center, at least so far. If Romney begins to tack to the center, he might be able to carve out some of Obama's softer centrist support ... but if he has to keep running to the right to tack down a slightly disgruntled base, he concedes the center to Obama, and with it the election.

And The Winner Is... I'd still take 3-2 odds in favor of President Obama's re-election. That probably won't change until convention time.

Speaking of which: the Republican National Convention begins on August 27, and the Democratic National Convention begins on September 3. The fun begins for real the weekend before August 27, which is when Governor Romney will probably spring his VP pick on us. Until then, vote early, and vote often!